Consultancy Services for Assessment of Multi-hazard Risks and Strengthening of Early Warning Early Action

Terms of Reference (ToR)

Consultancy Services for Assessment of Multi-hazard Risks and Strengthening of Early Warning Early Action in Kailali, Far-western Terai and Chure Hills of Nepal

Summary

1. Background 

IFRC British Red Cross (BRC), in partnership with Nepal Red Cross Society (NRCS) and National Trust for Nature Conservation (NTNC) is implementing a multi-year project on climate-smart livelihoods, biodiversity conservation through nature-based solution across the ecologically sensitive Chure Hills region of Nepal's far-western Kailali District, benefiting communities and ecosystems in the municipalities of Chure rural, Godawari, Tikapur, Bhajani, and Dhangadi. The project aims to empower communities to develop climate-smart livelihoods through Nature-based Solutions, ensuring a sustainable future both for inhabitants and endangered species. One of the major outputs of the project is to support local governments and communities of project areas for better disaster preparedness (lives, livelihoods, biodiversity and environmental protection), through establishment or strengthening of multi-hazard early warning system for climate induced disasters. In this context, IFRC BRC would like to commission a detailed assessment of multi-hazard risks and state of early warning early action in the project areas and identify priority options for project interventions for strengthening multi-hazard early warning system that are localised, accessible and actionable.

2. Rationale of the Study

The Terai and Chure Hills are geographically and hydrologically connected, leading to a complex interplay of hazards. The low-lying Terai region of Kailali is prone to flooding, waterlogging, and drought. The region's proximity to major rivers, such as the Karnali and Mahakali and several other rivers originating from Chure, exacerbates its vulnerability to seasonal floods. Additionally, the Terai's agricultural focus makes it particularly susceptible to impacts from both floods and droughts. The Chure Hills, also known as the Siwalik Hills, are characterized by steep terrain and are prone to landslides, erosion, and flash floods. The region's geomorphology, combined with heavy rainfall during the monsoon season, leads to significant soil erosion and landslides, which can have severe consequences for local communities and infrastructure. Flooding in the Terai can be influenced by landslides and erosion in the Chure Hills, which contribute to sedimentation and increased river flow. Conversely, deforestation and land use changes in the Chure Hills can exacerbate flooding and erosion in the Terai.

Heatwaves and cold waves in the Terai region of Kailai also pose significant challenges to health, agriculture, and infrastructure. Terai areas, especially the urban cities like Dhangadi experiences high temperatures, especially during the pre-monsoon and summer months (March to June), often lasting several days to weeks. Pro-longed heatwave event has led to increased mortality and morbidity due to heat-related health issues. Also, high temperatures are causing water stress and heat stress in crops, leading to their reduced yield and quality. Sudden cold spells, during winter months are very common in these areas, leading to cold-related health problems, crop damage, livestock mortality, issues in mobility and logistics. Heat waves intensify evaporation rates, exacerbating drought conditions. Also, during heatwaves, intense rainfall events can occur due to higher atmospheric moisture content, leading to increased runoff and a higher risk of flooding. Heatwaves and cold waves can reduce soil infiltration capacity, and the already dry or frozen soil may be unable to absorb the water quickly during heavy rainfall events, increasing the likelihood of surface runoff and flooding. There is a need for comprehensive analysis of various hazards within a specific context, considering their interactions and the potential impacts of cascading, cumulative, or concurrent events. Understanding these interactions through a multi-hazard risk assessment is crucial for developing effective risk management strategies, enhancing early warning systems, and building resilience in these vulnerable regions.

The current state of early warning systems in Kailali District reflects a mix of existing capabilities and challenges. While there are some functional systems in place, particularly for flood warnings, the specificity, accuracy and timeliness of these warnings largely vary across communities. The practices for early warning alerts for heatwaves and cold waves are just starting, and the consistency and reach of such warnings across the vulnerable is still in question. There is a need for improved coverage, better coordination, and enhanced community engagement. With regard to droughts, there are limited formal early warning systems as the response has been often reactive rather than proactive. Setting up early warning systems for landslides across Chure hills poses both technological and operational challenges. With changing climate patterns, the frequency and intensity of these hazards may shift, affecting the reliability and relevance of existing early warning early action (EWEA) practices. Evaluating these EWEA practices, especially the community understanding of early warnings and their ability to act upon them, will help in adapting to evolving conditions and ensuring their continued effectiveness. 

Moreover, the traditional method of handling hazards as separate entities, often referred to as the multi-layer single-hazard or multiple-hazard approach, has proven to be ineffective. This fragmented strategy distorts management priorities, heightens vulnerability to additional hazards, and underestimates associated risks. Multi-hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) addresses a broad spectrum of hazards and their impacts, whether they occur independently, simultaneously, sequentially, or cumulatively over time. By factoring in interrelated effects, MHEWS enhances the efficiency and consistency of warnings through coordinated and integrated mechanisms. MHEWS are more than just a collection of single-hazard warning systems, rather communicates and build on one another to provide early warnings for multiple hazards. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) of Nepal is currently finalizing a conceptual framework and workplan to facilitate the establishment of the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) in Nepal. However, to realize such national framework at sub-national or local level, it is important to understand and comprehend the contextual factors like physical and environmental, socioeconomic, institutional, and governance that affect elements, enablers and interconnection of MHEWS.

3. Objective

IFRC/British Red Cross is commissioning this consultancy service to assess the multi-hazard risks in project areas of Kailali district, evaluate the status of early warning and early action and identify options and priorities for establishing or strengthening multi-hazard early warning system (MHEWS) that are localised, inclusive, accessible and actionable.

The specific objectives of the consultancy services include but not limited to:

• Identify all the hazards; hydrometeorological, geological and environmental hazards, with a particular focus on climate related, that are relevant to the project areas and/or the associated watersheds, landscape and ecosystem.
• Characterize possible interaction between the identified hazards with a detailed investigation into the impacts arising from cascading, cumulative, or concurrent occurrences of two or more hazards spatially, and/or temporally in the project areas. 
• Assess the vulnerability and exposure including their drivers leading to multi-hazard risks in project communities.
• Evaluate the existing practices of early warning and early action in project municipalities and communities, including analysis of effectiveness of early warning alerts and efficiency of community response and action mechanisms.
• Identify gaps, weakness and challenges in the current early warning systems and the implementation of associated early action protocols, disaster preparedness and response plans in project areas.
• Analyse governance of multi-hazard early warning system (Institutional arrangements, policies, strategies, financing etc.) that assign clear roles and responsibilities including resourcing and capacity building at different levels and explore opportunities for collaboration with them.
• Determine technical and operation requirements for multi-hazard early warning system (MHEWS) that can be established or strengthened across local municipalities or project watershed/ecosystem.
• Propose priority areas/recommendations for interventions that are actionable for establishing or strengthening MHEWS, in short-, medium- and long-term timescale, categorized for each component i.e., (i) risk knowledge (ii) detection, monitoring, and forecasting (iii) warning, dissemination, and communication (iv) preparedness to respond, all well-coordinated across hazards, sectors, actors, and governance levels.
• Provide technical training and operational support during implementation for strengthening the MHEWS in the project site based on the recommendations of the assessment report.

Click on the link below for detailed TOR:

ToR- MHEWS_Final 08_10_2025

Financial Offer _ Multi-Hazard Early Warning System_( MHEWS) Assessment

Confidentiality

All information collected by the learning partner on behalf of NRCS, NTNC, and BRC will remain the property of NRCS, NTNC, and IFRC/BRC and require explicit permission by both parties for any use not stated here.

Application Procedures

Interested candidates should submit their application material by 29 October, 2024 to the following e-mail: aliza.baidya@ifrc.org

Please put the Application for “Multi-Hazard Early Warning Assessment- MHEWS” in the subject heading. Application materials are non-returnable and only short-listed candidates will be contacted for the next step in the application process.

Documents: (made available to Consultancy firm prior to start of the consultancy)

• Project concepts note/proposal
• Logical Framework of Action
• Information from data base system of the existing programmes (if required) 
• Other information (if required) as per mutual agreement.